Options Expiration
Today is options expiration, so it is time to take a look at my price "targets" I came up with based on options open interest. The first number is calculated base stictly on open interest, the second takes options values into account:
AAPL 250 240 currently at 275.69 clean miss
DIA 101 104 currently at 106.06 clean miss
GLD 109 110 currently at 124.75 clean miss
GS 145 145 currently at 151.04 clean miss
SPY 106 109 currently at 112.52 these don't expire until September 29, so I can't call it yet, but it does not look good.
I had a few hits and quite a few close ones in past months, but was way off this month. These results probably mean one of three things: 1) there is a mistake in my method, 2) this month was a fluke, or 3) the theory that price on expiration can be predicted by options open interest is false. At this point I am not sure I will continue this unless I can fin a way for it to take up less time.
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